Research And Insights


PREDICTING BOX OFFICE PERFORMANCE

Vault’s Algorithms Used Only Screenplays As An Input To Predict The North American Box Office.

2015 Predictions Insights

Results to date

2016 PREDICTIONS

Full List Below

Predictions Are Given For Available Screenplays Only. Production Budgets Are Guesstimated.For Changes Or Updates Please Contact Us.

Results to date

Coming soon

About

This Research Test Was Conducted To Examine The Prediction Strength Of Vault’s Box Office Algorithms Using Only Screenplays As An Input For Prediction.

Put Simply, If Vault Had A Billion Dollars To Invest In Movies, Which Screenplays Would Vault Choose?

The Tests Aim Was To Deliver The Most Unbiased Predictions Possible, Extracting Only The Story Of The Screenplay To Predict. In No Way Were Opinions, Reactions And Preferences (E.G. Funny Joke, Good Movie, Blockbuster) Taken Into Account; Only The Many Features Of A Story (Eg. Genre, Plot, Setting).

The Experiment’s Aim Is To Understand Who Was The More Efficient Investor Using Box Office As Total Returns And The Production Budget As The Investment. Whilst This Does Not Represent A True Example Of How Much Total Cash Was Put Up Or The Waterfall Of Profits, It Does Clearly Demonstrate The Power Of Artificial Intelligence.

As Time Goes On And More Screenplays Are Available We Will Publish Our Predictions. Follow Us On Twitter To Stay Up To Date.

How we do it?

Vault Combines Decades Of Story/Script Data With Performance Data In An Attempt To Predict Audience Size For Any Given Screenplay.

Capital Allocation Is Just One Aspect To A Full Spectrum Of Systems VAULT Maintains. Other Systems Give Predictions And Insights Into Marketing, Demographics, Casting, Distribution, Content Acquisition And Content Recommendation Engines.

Frequently Asked Questions

Which Markets Are The Predictions For?

This Test Was For The North American Market.


What Data Do You Use?

We Use A Combination Of Public Domain Data And Private Data.
Decades Of Screenplay And Movie Data Combine For Our Predictions.


How Do You Detect A Story?

We Use Proprietary Natural Language Processing Systems To Extract Features From A Screenplay, Such As Genres, Characters, Locations, Events – Levels Of Sex And Violence And More. We Build A Comprehensive Story Profile To Deliver Predictions Based Only On The Screenplay.


You Were Wrong With One Of Your Predictions!

Yep, No Hiding It, We Were. Nothing But Death And Taxes Are 100% In This World, And Even That May Not Be 100% In Years To Come. We Don’t Offer A Golden Bullet, We Offer The Next Best Thing: Beating The House.
So, Yes It Is True We Are Wrong, We’re Just Wrong A Lot Less Than Everyone Else Giving A Huge Competitive Advantage To Our Clients.


Why Are You Limited To Only The Movies On Your List? More Movies Than This Have Come Out.

The Movies On The List Represents Screenplays That Were Available For Our Test. To Make It A Pure And Unbiased Test We Used Only Screenplays That Our System Had Never Seen Before. As Time Goes On And More Screenplays Are Made Available We Will Release Our Predictions.


Why Are You Trying To Destroy Art?

We Are Trying To Get More People To The Movies. The System Is An Audience Location Tool Built To Understand If A Screenplay Has An Audience. Indeed, It Means More Money For Content Producers And Investors, But It Also Means More People Will Be Going To The Movies, Which We Believe That’s A Good Thing.


YOU ARE GOING TO KILL ART BY ONLY PRODUCING COMIC BOOK MOVIES FOREVER!

Whoa, Calm Down. Vault Finds Audience – That’s What It Does Best. It Also Has A ‘Wide Taste’ In Literature And Movies, So To Speak. It Finds Audiences For Small Budgets, Mid Level Budgets, Big Budgets, Comedies, Romances, Thrillers, Horror, War, And Yes, Even Comic Book Movies.


I’M FURIOUS: A MACHINE CAN’T READ SCREENPLAYS!

Yes, It Can – You Just Have To Teach It How.


You Are Going To Destroy Creativity!

The System Was Built Under One All Encompassing Rule: Maximize Creative Flexibility. That’s Why When Roll Into Town, We Give Our Predictions And Get Out. We’re Lazy, We Would Prefer The Producers, Directors, Actors Do The Rest.
As Soon As Our Predictions Are Given The Idea Is For The Talent To Be As Creative As Possible With The Added Benefit That Their Movie Will Hit.


Why Are You Doing This Test?

We Have Done Back Testing, Forward Testing, Side Testing, Up Testing, You Name It We Tested It. But It Was Pretty Clear, If We Put Our Money Where Our USB Ports Are Then The System Strength Can Be Seen In Plain View.


What Other Tracking Or Outside Analytics Did You Base Your Results On?

None. Zero. Zilch. Nada. Our Predictions Are Based Purely Off The Screenplay Or Story Data We Could Extract. That’s It. Our Research Shows That Story Is An Extremely Powerful Driver For Audience.
Naturally, Inputting Casting, Advertising Budgets And Tracking Insights Could Increase The Prediction. But We Wanted To Be Completely Pure In Our Approach And Show The Power Of Story Via Our Predictions.


What’s VAULT’S Top 3 Movies Of All Time:

Blade Runner
The Matrix
Toy Story


What Else Can You Do?

Casting, Demographics, Marketing, Distribution & Exhibition Insights, Content Acquisition (Including OTT, VOD, Networks).
We Can Provide Recommendation Engines And Predictions For Any User Base.
For More Information Please Email Us @ Info@Vault-Group.Com.


Disclaimer:

Predictions are derived by way of statistical machine learning methods only. Predictions serve research and educational purposes only.


If you are a studio, distributor or producer with an upcoming 2015-2016 release and would like to get a prediction, please contact us via your company’s email address.

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